Lumber

The overall recommendation is Strong Sell based on technical indicators and moving averages. The price is really close to or below the lower band which means it's oversold. An RSI between 30 and 70 is pretty normal, showing a neutral rating. The MACD line is below the signal line pointing to a bearish trend. The 10-day EMA is above the 20-day EMA which suggests short-term strength. The price being below the 50-day SMA is a sign of medium-term weakness. The 50-day SMA is under the 200-day SMA, suggesting a longer-term downtrend. The ATR is 14.01 which gives a sense of the current price volatility.

Lumber futures are expected to trade between $500-$600 per thousand board feet over the next 6 to 12 months. Forecasts for 2025 suggest lumber prices will moderate due to easing inflation and improved supply chains, remaining above pre-pandemic levels. Increased housing demand and lower interest rates will support prices, preventing a return to pre-pandemic lows. Potential upside volatility exists from increased tariffs on Canadian lumber imports, possibly reaching 30% by summer 2025 and the risk of sawmill closures in North America. Wood product demand is projected to rebound in 2025, driven by growth in single-family housing starts and accelerated repair and remodeling activity.