Mexico Stock Market Index (Mexico IPC)

The overall recommendation is Buy based on technical indicators and moving averages. An RSI between 30 and 70 is pretty normal, showing a neutral rating. The MACD line is below the signal line pointing to a bearish trend. The 10-day EMA is above the 20-day EMA which suggests short-term strength. The current price is above the 50-day SMA which is a sign of medium-term strength. The 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, supporting a longer-term positive trend. The ATR is 823.20 which gives a sense of the current price volatility.

Subdued economic forecasts for Mexico are expected to weigh on the IPC Index. Citi projects 0.2% GDP growth for 2025, a downgrade that may dampen investor sentiment. BBVA, BofA, BNP Paribas and Scotiabank Mexico anticipate a contraction in 2025 which could lead to decreased corporate earnings and pressure the index. Barclays offers a more optimistic 0.7% growth forecast for 2025, potentially providing some support. For 2026, the IMF and Citi forecast 1.4% and 1.2% GDP growth respectively while Barclays expects 2%, suggesting a gradual recovery that could benefit the index over time. Core inflation is expected around 3.5% in 2025, above the central bank's target, potentially delaying interest rate cuts and impacting equity valuations. The Bank of Mexico anticipates inflation convergence to its target in the third quarter of 2026, indicating a prolonged period of higher rates. Vanguard Mexico expects growth below 1% in 2025 with core inflation at 3.5% and anticipates central bank rates ending 2025 between 8% and 8.25%, suggesting a restrictive monetary policy environment that could limit index upside.