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Ukraine Business Confidence

Ukraine's business confidence fell by 1% to 102 points in Q3 2025, the lowest in three quarters. This decline follows 103 points in Q2 2025. Intensified attacks, high reconstruction costs and staff shortages caused the dip. Despite this, businesses expect moderate production growth and increased sales volumes. Energy, water, large enterprises and exporters show the most optimism. Inflation is expected to reach 11.4% annually with the war as the main driver. The UAH is forecast to trade at 44.11 per U.S. dollar. Foreign aid supports prices and exchange rates and inflation eased to 11.9% by September 2025. Ukraine's record low business confidence was 72.6 points in Q2 2022 and record high was 120.6 points in Q1 2018.

Quarterly Historical Data (2015-2025)

(in points)
Quarter Business Confidence (points)
Q3 2025 102
Q2 2025 103
Q1 2025 108
Q4 2024 101.8
Q3 2024 100.6
Q2 2024 99.5
Q1 2024 103
Q4 2023 101.6
Q3 2023 104.5
Q2 2023 104.5
Q1 2023 91.2
Q4 2022 83.5
Q3 2022 79.5
Q2 2022 72.6
Q1 2022 108.2
Q4 2021 112.1
Q3 2021 114.3
Q2 2021 112.3
Q1 2021 108.4
Q4 2020 99.6
Q3 2020 100.8
Q2 2020 90.8
Q1 2020 110.5
Q4 2019 112
Q3 2019 115.3
Q2 2019 117.8
Q1 2019 119.7
Q4 2018 117.3
Q3 2018 117.2
Q2 2018 118.3
Q1 2018 120.6
Q4 2017 115.2
Q3 2017 117.4
Q2 2017 114.3
Q1 2017 113.3
Q4 2016 108.7
Q3 2016 109.2
Q2 2016 108.5
Q1 2016 98.4
Q4 2015 104
Q3 2015 100.2
Ukraine Business Confidence : Definition
Ukraine business confidence reflects Ukrainian businesses' sentiment on the current economy and future prospects. Calculated via surveys on expected production orders, employment and prices. A value over 100 signals optimism, under 100 signals pessimism. Source: National Bank of Ukraine.